GLOBAL TENDENCIES IN NUCLEAR POWER ENGINEERING

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the analytical inspection and parameterization of the dynamics of the world’s nuclear energy complex from the first selfsustaining chain reaction to the present day. The rapid development of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s slowed down significantly at the beginning of the third millennium. The dynamics of increasing operational capacities is a linear unfolding of the completed turn of the spiral of development. Almost 90 % of electricity in the nuclear power industry in 1970–2021 was generated by PWR and BWR light water reactors. It is expected that their technological resources will be exhausted by 99 % by 2077. If the current pace of development is maintained, the share of electricity generated by NPPs in the world by that time will decrease to 1,5 %. Nuclear power capacities in Europe and America are declining, while is developing in Asia, particularly in China, where almost 70 % of the nuclear power plants under construction are located. The rate of decline in uranium production indicates to by 2040 no more than half of the world’s nuclear fuel demand will be met. Safety and security of the nuclear energy complex are considerably decreasing with the growth of reactor capacity, and the discrepancy between the calculated and observed probabilities of a severe radiation accident reaches two orders of magnitude. As a result of current manifestation of great-power nuclear terrorism, the global nuclear safety and security system needs to be overhauled. Further development of the nuclear energy requires a “technological leap”. At present, there is no technology available for widespread implementation that could increase nuclear reactor capacity by an order of magnitude without compromising nuclear safety, especially considering that fusion reactor technology is unlikely to be widely implemented in the next few decades. A technological bridge between existing and future developments could serve small modular reactors which in the short term could mitigate the energy supply shortage.