POSSIBILITY OF USING THE EXPERT METHODS AND SYSTEMS TO SOLVE ECOLOGICAL SAFETY ISSUES AT THE ZONES OF NPPS INFLUENCE

Abstract

The issues of possible use of modern expert methods and systems for decision making support in the field of environmental safety at the zones of NPP influence are considered in the article. The analyses of the methods, as a Delphi method, hierarchy method, method of cross sections is presented. These methods are used in various sectors of the economy to make effective decision-making process. None of them by itself solves a specific problem, but works as an integral system methodology. Delphi method is based on the assumption that on the basis of expert opinion can be done an adequate model for the future development of the object forecasting. Analytic hierarchy does not attribute to the person making a decision, any correct decisions and allows interactively find the option that best agrees with his understanding of the nature of the problem and requirements to its solving. The method of cross-influence is an improved version of the analytic hierarchy process and allows to foresee the possible future occurrences, extrapolating data for the future. Analysis of the possibilities of these methods proved their practical utility for making effective administrative decisions in conditions of uncertainty in various areas of the economy. The issues of expert systems creation, their advantages and disadvantages, applications and prospects for their further development are also considered in the paper. The obtained results will be used to construct a module of expert information and analytical assessments of the expert system for environmental impact assessment of nuclear power plants.